[On the way]

Given the amount of satellite intelligence, commint, common knowledge, etc. the US military must know exactly where the Somali pirates are based. Even the Cpt. Phillips who was rescued earlier indicated that the US Navy knew the strenght of the pirates, where they were going, etc. What are they waiting for? Its not like the Somali military is in a position to prevent any US airstrikes. I don't see why the US will not launch an airstrike with PGM, take out their personnel and bases, and boats, than helo in MArines to finish the job off. In and out in 24 hours or less. They may not be able take them all out, but they will certainly hurt them for a while, and think twice about piracy.

[kaikaun]

Launching airstrikes produces collateral damage, which looks bad on TV. Putting boots on the ground may lead to casualties, which looks worse on TV. Either is expensive and risky. Don't forget "Blackhawk Down", where the Somalis had better anti-air capability than expected and failure to plan for the worst led to near disaster. Nothing military is ever that easy.

I also would not be so sure that locating the pirates is that easy. CTF 151 cannot even stop the pirate boats at sea. How can they find dispersed pirates in the chaos on land? The same issues as in COIN present themselves. How do you seperate pirates or insurgents from innocent but armed seamen? Until they attack, pirates with guns can claim to be innocent fishrmen protecting themselves from the terrible pirate problem in the area that claimed his brother last week, bless his soul, etc. How do you separate the guilty from the innocent until it is too late?

[swerve]

Even if such an operation was successful, in terms of killing pirates & their paymasters, & destroying their boats, it would also kill as many hostages as 100 years of piracy at current rates, & probably cost as much. To me, it seems like cutting off ones head to cure toothache.

[binder001]

The other part of the problem is that most of the pirates at sea are just "grunts" - easily replaceable from the hordes of poor schmucks in the Horn of Africa. The real operators don't go to sea - they sit in villas and have Swiss bank accounts. THOSE are the pirates that the civilized world needs to address.

[Luke Y]

If there is one thing Somalia doesn't have a shortage of it is young men with lots of guns and no hope for a better future.

The only solution is to make Somalia semi-viable as a state (Or really three states) and we all remember how well that went last time with over a hundred peacekeepers and aid workers dead, multiple vehicle losses plus operational costs for nothing...

There is no easy solution to this in the longer term that doesn't involve fixing somalia as a whole.

The only interim solution is greater naval patrols and enforcment. Some kind of exclusion lanes would be has been suggested, but you need to be able to enforce them all the way out to the deep indian ocean (I don't think people realize just how big an AO these guys are operating, and how far from Somalia.

The end result will probably involve some pay-off by gulf arab sheiks in some way 'mediating' though... <_<

BTW, any chance we can cut down the number of Somali Pirate threads? There is about two in every forum bar the armour board. (AmphibiGav!ns to stop piracy?)

This post has been edited by Luke_Yaxley: 13 April 2009 - 1618 PM

[On the way]

kaikaun, on Mon 13 Apr 2009 1047, said:

Launching airstrikes produces collateral damage, which looks bad on TV. Putting boots on the ground may lead to casualties, which looks worse on TV. Either is expensive and risky. Don't forget "Blackhawk Down", where the Somalis had better anti-air capability than expected and failure to plan for the worst led to near disaster. Nothing military is ever that easy.

I also would not be so sure that locating the pirates is that easy. CTF 151 cannot even stop the pirate boats at sea. How can they find dispersed pirates in the chaos on land? The same issues as in COIN present themselves. How do you seperate pirates or insurgents from innocent but armed seamen? Until they attack, pirates with guns can claim to be innocent fishrmen protecting themselves from the terrible pirate problem in the area that claimed his brother last week, bless his soul, etc. How do you separate the guilty from the innocent until it is too late?

What TV? Has there been any TV crews filming in these pirate camps? I understand they are pretty isolated and inaccesible. This is not a Blackhawk Down situation. These guys are not in an urban build up area. I really doubt if they have any AA capability. Do u seriously think the US are not tracking them via satellite? Every ship that has been hijacked has to be sailed to their "hideout". Every little pirate speedboat that goes out and tries to intercept these merchant ships is under surveillance via satellite, and probably UAV. The only plausible reason for the US or sme other allies not striking is that the hostages are intemingled with them. Do u think pirates are hiding among fishermen, and other civilians that will sell their location and strenght to any foreigners for cash? Or risk being infliltrated by allied forces pretending to be fishermen? Or do you think they will keep to themselves and threaten anyone who comes near? If civilians are sheltering them and aiding and abetting them, than tough. They better be ready to be collateral damage.

[Chris Werb]

On the way, on Tue 14 Apr 2009 0809, said:

WDo u seriously think the US are not tracking them via satellite? Every ship that has been hijacked has to be sailed to their "hideout". Every little pirate speedboat that goes out and tries to intercept these merchant ships is under surveillance via satellite, and probably UAV.

AFAIK US surveillance satellites aren't geostationary. If they were, they'd be in too high an orbit. Therefore, unless I'm mistaken, they can't track targets for a significant length of time, if at all.

[DougRichards]

On the way, on Tue 14 Apr 2009 0709, said:

The only plausible reason for the US or sme other allies not striking is that the hostages are intemingled with them. Do u think pirates are hiding among fishermen, and other civilians that will sell their location and strenght to any foreigners for cash? Or risk being infliltrated by allied forces pretending to be fishermen? Or do you think they will keep to themselves and threaten anyone who comes near? If civilians are sheltering them and aiding and abetting them, than tough. They better be ready to be collateral damage.

There is a good chance that these pirates are fishermen, but they probably fit the category of unlawful combatants better than any other group that I have heard of. They belong to gangs, fairly large criminal organisations, but by and large they are like the standover men, loan sharks, drug pushers and other sundry criminal element anywhere in the world. The US authorities cannot win the war on crime in their own cities they have little chance of winning on the open sea, except if they declare a certain area a 'no go zone - say a strip of ocean 50 k out from the coast, 100k wide and between the shipping lanes and the coast, and let it be known that ANYONE who strays into that area without authorisation is liable to attack.

And that ain't gonna happen.

Of course what will happen is the pirates could start taking hostages from Somalia along on raids with them, so any attack on a pirate vessel will also kill 'civilians',

[kaikaun]

On the way, on Tue 14 Apr 2009 0709, said:

What TV? Has there been any TV crews filming in these pirate camps? I understand they are pretty isolated and inaccesible. This is not a Blackhawk Down situation. These guys are not in an urban build up area. I really doubt if they have any AA capability. Do u seriously think the US are not tracking them via satellite? Every ship that has been hijacked has to be sailed to their "hideout". Every little pirate speedboat that goes out and tries to intercept these merchant ships is under surveillance via satellite, and probably UAV. The only plausible reason for the US or sme other allies not striking is that the hostages are intemingled with them. Do u think pirates are hiding among fishermen, and other civilians that will sell their location and strenght to any foreigners for cash? Or risk being infliltrated by allied forces pretending to be fishermen? Or do you think they will keep to themselves and threaten anyone who comes near? If civilians are sheltering them and aiding and abetting them, than tough. They better be ready to be collateral damage.

The media goes where the news is. If the US launches strikes, the TV crews will be there.

I do seriously think the US is not tracking them with satellites or UAVs. The number of active "Key Hole" IMINT satellites is very limited. They have far more important things to observe (Russia, China, NK, Iran and other nuclear states) and I doubt that they would waste the very limited fuel, power and bandwidth to track pirates. Each billion-dollar satellite goes up with severely limited resources and hence lifespan. Uncle Sam does not get his money's worth expending them on pirates. Several satellites would also be needed to achieve adequate surveillance since the satellites are not geostationary, as mentioned already. A huge number of UAVs would be needed to observe the huge AO. Again, UAVs with the required range are in limited supply, and they have more important things to do. Global Hawks don't grow on trees, and are needed in Afghanistan urgently. This is not the movies. The godlike eye in the sky does not exist (or at least is ludicrously expensive and severely limited in time and space).

The pirates are definitely able to blend into the civilian population, like any other species of criminal. They are not professional soldiers in units with a chain of command. They are poor fishermen and unemployed youths who take to crime in desperation, underwritten by criminal syndicates and potentially terrorists. They run huge risks looking for the big score hoping for a better life. It makes no sense to speak of civilians "sheltering" pirates, since the pirates are the civilian population, albeit its criminal element. It makes no sense to speak of "fishermen" and "pirates" as two seperate groups, since there is so much traffic between the two. Do we carpet bomb neighborhoods because a few people there are robbers or even kidnappers? It is a tempting idea, but it is not how things are done anymore.

[5150]

On the way, on Tue 14 Apr 2009 0209, said:

What TV? Has there been any TV crews filming in these pirate camps? I understand they are pretty isolated and inaccesible. This is not a Blackhawk Down situation. These guys are not in an urban build up area. I really doubt if they have any AA capability. Do u seriously think the US are not tracking them via satellite? Every ship that has been hijacked has to be sailed to their "hideout". Every little pirate speedboat that goes out and tries to intercept these merchant ships is under surveillance via satellite, and probably UAV. The only plausible reason for the US or sme other allies not striking is that the hostages are intemingled with them. Do u think pirates are hiding among fishermen, and other civilians that will sell their location and strenght to any foreigners for cash? Or risk being infliltrated by allied forces pretending to be fishermen? Or do you think they will keep to themselves and threaten anyone who comes near? If civilians are sheltering them and aiding and abetting them, than tough. They better be ready to be collateral damage.

Most of the news stories I read contain direct quotes from pirates who don't appear to be hiding their names. From that, I'd assume that the media is there and hasn't had a hard time finding these people. They're not necessarily in camps away from civilians--these people are civilians. Criminals, but civilians. And it would appear that at least a portion of the population views these pirates as heros, bringing wealth into the community.

We rarely manage to do an easy-in, easy-out strike. I can't imagine that doing one here would change anything. These pirates are nothing more than angry young men, and we'll never kill all of the angry young men in Somali. I don't particularly want American boots on the ground for a long period of time, and I don't want us to engage in the long-term nation building require to "solve" the problem. The costs of that outweigh the costs of the piracy.

[glenn239]

Quote

...and we'll never kill all of the angry young men in Somali.

No, but we could make a decent stab at killing all the angry men in boats off the Somali coast…

[medicjim86]

Hire Somali fisherman to hunt Pirates...pay based on performance... every piracy event within "x" nautical miles diminishes the annual pay. Create a scheme where the most reliable hunters get promoted to leadership or coordinator roles....consider other jobs they could do while idle, which offset cost and generate true revenue

[JCT]

The US is most likely not providing constant surveillance as mentioned above. However, CJTF-Horn of Africa is located not too far away in Camp Lemonier, Djibouti. There are some surveillance assets there, but I would not trust everything in that Wiki link.

[5150]

medicjim86, on Tue 14 Apr 2009 1236, said:

Hire Somali fisherman to hunt Pirates...pay based on performance... every piracy event within "x" nautical miles diminishes the annual pay. Create a scheme where the most reliable hunters get promoted to leadership or coordinator roles....consider other jobs they could do while idle, which offset cost and generate true revenue

Once the pirates have been curtailed, do you expect that the men you've been paying to do your dirty work will become shop keepers and farmers? Or do you keep paying them to sit idle?

The Romans learned all of that the hard way.

[Chris Werb]

medicjim86, on Tue 14 Apr 2009 1836, said:

Hire Somali fisherman to hunt Pirates...pay based on performance... every piracy event within "x" nautical miles diminishes the annual pay. Create a scheme where the most reliable hunters get promoted to leadership or coordinator roles....consider other jobs they could do while idle, which offset cost and generate true revenue

How would you know the 'Pirates' they killed were actual pirates and not fishermen they'd killed to get the reward? For that matter how would you know the hunters were not themselves pirates?

[Luke Y]

medicjim86, on Wed 15 Apr 2009 0306, said:

Hire Somali fisherman to hunt Pirates...pay based on performance... every piracy event within "x" nautical miles diminishes the annual pay. Create a scheme where the most reliable hunters get promoted to leadership or coordinator roles....consider other jobs they could do while idle, which offset cost and generate true revenue

Why go scalping armed pirates when there are unarmed civillians you can scalp and get paid for?

[ink]

Maybe everybody should just employ a bunch of dolphins - you could pay them in fish...

Quote

BEIJING, April 14 (RIA Novosti) - A pod of dolphins has hampered an attempted Somali pirate attack on a convoy of Chinese commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden, Chinese media reported on Tuesday.

International Radio China reported that more than 1,000 dolphins had encircled several Chinese ships sailing through the Gulf of Aden on Monday, creating a live barrier between the commercial vessels and the Somali pirates.

The China Daily reported that the dolphins "suddenly leaped out of water between the pirates and merchants when the pirate ships headed for the Chinese vessels." The pirates were unable to approach the Chinese commercial vessels and had to retreat.

According to official reports, 20% of the 1,265 Chinese commercial vessels that passed through the Gulf of Aden in 2008 came under pirate attack.

Around 20 warships from the navies of at least 10 countries are involved in anti-piracy operations off Somalia. The Chinese Navy has escorted some 200 vessels through the pirate-infested waters off the East African country, which has no functioning government after years of civil war.

[Luke Y]

Why don't they just shoot the dolphins?
Better yet, drop a few grenades in the water, and those dolphins that don't suffer instantly from uncontrollable bouyancy will scatter quick-smart...

[medicjim86]

Chris Werb, on Tue 14 Apr 2009 2123, said:

How would you know the 'Pirates' they killed were actual pirates and not fishermen they'd killed to get the reward? For that matter how would you know the hunters were not themselves pirates?

Chris, I believe I answered your question in this snippet

"every piracy event within "x" nautical miles diminishes the annual pay"

I really don't care if the hunters were once pirates. The desired result is commerce resumes

[medicjim86]

Luke_Yaxley, on Wed 15 Apr 2009 0209, said:

Why go scalping armed pirates when there are unarmed civillians you can scalp and get paid for?

Well, if your pay is based on eliminating piracy in your area, killing fisherman would result in no profit.

This post has been edited by medicjim86: 15 April 2009 - 0813 AM